Predictive analysis of employees is a type of data analysis done basis assumptions and unknowns, to make predictions about unknown future events.
Consider a scenario: A manager walks towards one of his team member and tells him/her that they did a data analysis, and it predicts that some of the key resources similar to his/her profile would soon get restless and think of leaving the company, so the company want to make an offer basis data which shows how they had retained people of similar profile in past. What reaction is expected from the team member? Would s/he welcome the offer, marveling at the value of company’s HR analytics? Or, would s/he start exploring to identify his/her correct market value? Predictive analytics can enable a customized employment value proposition that maximizes mutual benefit for organizations and their talent; but at cost and what is the right time to perform this analysis?
There are both positive and negative side of this analysis, and there’s a potential negative side to this.
If predictive analysis says an employee is going to leave, and the management is not sure if they want to retain that employee or not?
If they want to keep them, they make the offer, career changes, etc. that will keep them.
In case they don’t want to retain the employee, do they then quietly provide them with the stimulus that would make them leave earlier? Don’t confuse this with constructive dismissal which is ground for legal action, but something in a formal way as per the company’s HR policies.
Tips for a successful predictive analysis
- Predictive Analytics require accurate data to deliver adequate predictions.
- True Predictive Analytics with respect to humans require explicit individual ‘human data collection’ – extensive spying.
- Predictive Analysis is based on a subset of individual information – whatever is obtained during the ‘spying time’ at work.
- Predictive Analysis assumes that identical behavioural patterns collected from two individuals will yield identical future behaviour.
- Check whether the Predictive Analysis can differentiate between ‘temporary behaviour caused by temporary outside events’ and a permanent trend?
- The demonstrated success of Predictive Analysis by Human Resource department with most employees would prove extremely prejudicial against those employees whose behaviour does not fit within the statistical norms – very likely the most creative employees. Thereby clearly indicating a need for automation of ‘people decisions’.
- If you want to take unbiased decisions which are in favour of your management, the best approach would be to trust and train people to manage other people.
In case a manager notices that one of this team member has significantly ramped up his activity on LinkedIn like profile updates, endorsements, recommendations and so on, is that grounds to meet one on one with the employee to assess whether he is actively looking for a new job? It is recommended to have an informal chat, as you need to be very sure before any formal discussion. Regardless of how transparent management is, in indicating what data is being collected and for what purpose, some staff will be concerned that it is being used for unpleasant purposes.
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